Tom Maertens
May 14, 2004
MANKATO, MINN. -- The Bush administration has gotten us into a deep hole in Iraq. Worse, they want to keep digging. The administration has increased the projected troop presence to 135,000 until at least the end of 2005.
Their mission is "security and stability," which could prove to be an open-ended and forlorn quest. There is no mention of an exit strategy, no explanation of what constitutes "winning."
What casualty figures are available suggest that 10,000 Iraqi civilians have died so far in the fighting. Statistically, another two or three times that number have probably been wounded by air and artillery strikes.
Contrast the 30,000 to 40,000 Iraqi casualties with the 3,000 dead we suffered on 9/11. Our outrage was sufficient to justify the invasion of not one but two countries in pursuit of revenge on terrorists.
The casualties we have inflicted on Iraq in the name of freedom (and revenge) have in turn outraged many Iraqis, turning a growing segment of the population against us. Those casualties and the recent revelations about U.S. mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners have poisoned the atmosphere and destroyed any chance of winning more Iraqi hearts and minds.
Let's review the situation: There were no weapons of mass destruction; the Iraqis were not involved in 9/11; no Al-Qaida fighters have yet been captured or paraded before the press; Saddam is in custody; Lakhtar Brahimi and the United Nations are working to transfer sovereignty to Iraqis; opinion polls show that the majority of Iraqis want us out immediately; and because of the prisoner abuse, U.S. status and prestige are approaching rock bottom.
Now is the time for a declaration of Mission Accomplished and to set a timetable for the United States to get out.
I suggest the following: Once sovereignty has been transferred on June 30, we should inform the interim Iraqi administration that we will protect the Green Zone in Baghdad and the oil infrastructure until one month after the elections, scheduled for January 2005.
This troop presence would provide security for the elections to take place and a short grace period for the newly elected government to get established.
During those nine months, we'd provide the interim regime with enough money to institute a functioning government, pay security forces and carry out infrastructure repairs. Around $2 billion per month for nine months should be enough. This money, coupled with the U.S. promise to depart, might even be sufficient to quiet key opposition figures and help establish the interim regime's legitimacy to conduct elections.
One month after elections, the United States should begin troop withdrawal, to be completed within six months. During that time, U.S. monetary assistance would continue at some reduced rate, perhaps $1 billion per month. After six months, Iraq will have to rely on its oil resources for funds.
Up till now, the U.N. has been reluctant to pick up the broken china in Iraq by supplying troops and money without having a real role in decisionmaking. With Brahimi in charge of forming an interim government, important decisionmaking authority has now been given to the U.N. Member states may now be willing to supply peacekeeping forces once it's clear the United States is committed to withdraw.
In the 15 months before U.S. withdrawal, coalition troops would turn over security responsibilities to Iraq forces, as is happening around Fallujah. American troops would not be tasked with suppressing Iraqi insurgents around Najaf, Fallujah or anywhere else. Dealing with such problems would become the responsibility of the new interim government.
The alternative to this scenario could be a festering, cancerous wound, akin to what Americans suffered in Vietnam and the Russians endured in Afghanistan. Both countries got bogged down in 10-year wars that resulted only in death, injury and environmental destruction on a massive scale.
We must learn from the past to avoid the same mistakes in the future. Once elections take place and power is transferred to an Iraqi government, we will have won -- achieved everything that we can realistically hope to accomplish. Then the coalition forces should declare victory, withdraw and leave Iraq to the Iraqis.
